Transfer News: Early Predictions

There's been a bit of a stink in the cycling news this week (apart from the ongoing Ferrari + ditch = "serves him right"): Roberto Armadio, Team Manager, announced that Vincenzo Nibali would be leaving Liquigas at the end of the season.

He was quoted as saying that Liquigas "offered him a large contract, but has not received a response, and says that this means he will not return. Our offer was made (1.8 million Euros per year), we gave the boy time to properly evaluate our proposal, but we have not received any response. For us the matter is closed.”

Now this made me wonder if they had sent him the "large contract" through the post, or perhaps by courier, but that Nibali hadn't actually seen it. I mean, if you've been with a team for a while, you're doing well for them, they send you a contract - well, even if you want to get out, you'd still respond to it, wouldn't you? You wouldn't just ignore it.

In which case, imagine his horror on reading it in the cycling news that morning.

"Contract? What contract?" he calls out to his wife. (I have no idea if Mr Nibali has a Mrs Nibali, but for the sake of this post, we will assume that he has.)

"Amore Mio? Have you seen a large envelope for me, in the last few days?"  *frantic searching sounds*

Mrs Nibali responds : "No, kara - maybe it was mis-filed by the cleaner?"

"Maria! Mariiiiaaaaa! What have you done with the post?"

"Scusi Signor, post? What post?"

"Big envelope, Maria," *gestures with hands* "with team name on it?"

"Ah! Yes, Signor, on hall-stand with all the others!"

Nibali rushes off to the hall-stand, frantic scuffing sounds as though digging through huge pile of fan-mail...

The next day, we get a new report: Oh, no, says Liquigas's management, we have never even discussed a move.  Nibali's manager chips in to say that even if they were going to talk about it, they would not do so *pious look* until 1st August, the start of the transfer season.

How interesting. Presumably Mr Armadio is now either packing his bags, or grovelling to the boss about how didn't mean to blab to the news reporter, and he was very sorry, and please could he have another chance?

So for the rest of the season, Nibali's team will be looking sideways at him, and every time he talks to another rider in the peloton, other riders will sidle over to him, to try to overhear what's going on.

Which leads on to my early predictions for the end-of-season transfers.

And, predictably, I am mostly interested in OGL and his cohorts. We all know our brave Leopards are not happy about being the subject of a hostile takeover by Mr Bruyneel. And they have learned that sponsors are buggers (that is a technical term) who cannot be trusted, and that it's  not an easy job being the team manager and having to deal with them.

So, perhaps they will make a mass departure from Radioshack, and will go back to SaxoBank?

This is not as outrageous as it sounds: they have all had time to appreciate each other. Bjarne would be grovellingly grateful to get them back, and would have to acknowledge that they are all grown-ups now, who will not be dictated to. No more boot camps! I think he's learned that lesson....  And as for the riders, they would be grovellingly grateful to get back to some sensible team management and realistic expectations, and would have a deep and lasting understanding that sponsors are not easy to deal with, and that Bjarne is actually very, very good at dealing with them: I can't imagine another team manager who would keep a "wobbling" sponsor on board when his one-and-only, "we'll sponsor you if you get him" guy gets banned for a drug offence.

There does seem to be a trickle of suggestions that Jakob is seriously considering going back:and if he can, well, why not the rest of the Leopards?

Bjarne would regain UCI points and be able to continue at Pro-Team level with no problems: I am assuming, of course, that SaxoBank the sponsor don't throw another wobbler -but that is a bit unlikely, after all this time, I think. And I am sure that he would be/has been working hard in the background to line up another sponsor, just in case.

And what of Contador? Well, with no UCI points for two years, you could say that he's not a lot of use to a pro-team. Bjarne and Saxo have stuck by him amazingly, but can he really expect them to fund him for another 2 years with no points? Perhaps he'd be better moving to another team: this would also remove the awkwardness between him and the returning Leopard boys.

Mind you, I say that, but what awkwardness, really? Conti and Andy used to be very good friends. If they were working together, I can see them dominating the podium for any race they were both in. Of course, there might be problems with both of them wanting to do the Tour: I'd leave Bjarne to sort that one out.

Could Bjarne afford to keep Conti - rumoured at the time he joined SaxoBank to be one of the most expensive contracts - as well as to buy the Leopards back?  Logically, Conti's

And of course he's not a complete right-off as far as points go: although he can't earn any UCI points for finishing, he CAN earn what I call "kudos points" for the team: this is the other half of the UCI calculations as to who becomes a Pro-Team and who doesn't - they don't just work it out on the straightforward UCI points gained for wins, it's also based on the number of times a team has held the jersey, the number of times they have held on to it, the number of times they have regained it: combatative rider points, etc. He could still be an asset.

So far, Conti is suggesting that he'd be happy to go back to SaxoBank, but if he didn't - well, any Spanish team would no doubt snap him up like that *snaps fingers* and for that matter, even RadioShack might be interested, if the Leopards all jump ship. If they do, the Shack is going to be - again - full of sponsors but lacking in riders, so maybe he could go there: he's worked with Mr Bruyneel before, I am sure he can do it again.  *pulls dubious face*

Right, problem solved. Leopards; best paw forward, quick march!

No, it's not that simple, of course: but it's going to be very interesting to see what develops later in the year.